Can The Giants Catch The Bums?

With about a third of the season in the books the Giants sit in second place, 8.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But is it realistic to expect San Francisco to make a run at LA for the division title?

48 games into the season the Giants have scored just 188 runs. That means after 30% of the season they are on pace to score only 626 runs this year. They are on pace to allow 643 runs. If San Francisco continues their current level of play, we can expect them to finish with a .487 winning percentage and a 79-83 record.

Conversely, the Dodgers are expected to score 901 runs this season, while allowing about 640 runs by the years end. This would give them a pythagorean record of 108-54, a winning percentage of .665.

It kills me to say this but the Dodgers have a realistic shot at winning 100 games this season. The NL West is horrible, their pitching is almost as good as the Giants, and they're loaded up and down the lineup.

The people who are clamoring for San Francisco to trade for a bat and make a run at the playoffs are delusional. Adding a hitter will not make up the 29 game difference between the Giants and the Dodgers expected records. No player can win 29 games for a team by himself.

San Francisco doesn't need a hitter, it needs a whole new lineup. And guess what, we already have that lineup. It's in the minor leagues developing. Guys like Villalona, Posey, and others of their ilk should give us hope for the future. A future that should not be traded away just to make a half-assed run at the wildcard.

For now we should enjoy watching guys like Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval excel at the major league level. Brian Sabean has taken baby steps this year towards the youth movement most Giants fans have been clamoring for. Do you really want him to go out and get a guy like Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, or Russell Branyan? I'm sorry but those players are not the answer to San Francisco's problems.

Can the Giants catch LA and win the NL West? Sure it's possible, but it's highly unlikely. Do yourself a favor and stop looking at the standings and just enjoy the games.

Lincecum Looking For A Win

After two rough outings to start the season, Tim Lincecum has posted a 2.76 ERA in his last seven starts. Tonight the Giants ace will be looking to add to his win total after three straight no decisions.

He will face rookie Kris Medlen, who will be starting in only his second game at the big league level. The young right-hander only lasted three innings and gave up five earned runs in his control plagued debut, but believes he has fixed the mechanical problems that led to his wildness.

While this looks like a clear mismatch, Medlen showed a lot of potential during his four year stay in the minor leagues. He owns a 2.46 ERA in 227 innings pitched, and a 1.08 WHIP. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings, while only allowing two walks per game.

Medlen will come at the Giants with a fastball, a curveball, and a change up. He does not have dominating stuff so he will have to locate his pitches if he hopes to upset the reigning National League Cy Young. However, don't be fooled by yesterday's eight run outburst, San Francisco's lineup stinks and given Medlen's strong minor league track record it is very possible that he will keep Atlanta in the game.

Two Games; Two Runs

Baseball teams have been scoring runs since the 19th century, but apparently such an antiquated vestige of baseball's history is of no interest to these Giants. Two games into a three game set with the San Diego Padres, and San Francisco has only managed to score two runs. Newsflash, you will not win many games scoring only one run, and after tonight's 2-1 loss they haven't won any in this series.

On with the bullet points:

• Uh what was Aaron Rowand doing in the leadoff spot? Definitely didn't see that one coming, but the permaslumping center fielder showed some signs of life going 3-4 with a double. It will be interesting to see if this was a one time thing, or if manager Bruce Bochy will put Rowand in the top spot for tomorrow's game.
• Jonathan Sanchez remembered how to pitch tonight. Coming into Thursday's game, the Giants fifth starter had been pitching like just, a fifth starter. But Sanchez pitched six innings, and only allowed two hits and two earned runs. He was hit with the loss despite his strong start. We'll see if this is a sign of things to come, or if Sanchez will continue to be plagued by the inconsistency that has held him back all year.
• Randy Winn continued his hot streak. The right fielder has hit for a .353 average over the past two weeks. Tonight he went 2-4 with two doubles, and scored San Francisco's only run in this game.

Another three game sweep at PetCo Park would be enough to make me nauseous. Please don't make me puke Timmy.

Lincecum Gets His First Win

It took four starts, but Tim Lincecum finally got his first win of the season on Friday against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants won 5-1 as Lincecum defied the conventional wisdom that pitchers perform worse when they face the same team in consecutive starts, by going eight innings and only allowing one earned run. He struck out 12 batters to bring his total up to 25 in the last two games!

I've read in a couple of different places that some people are worried Bruce Bochy is pushing Lincecum too hard this early in the season. They cite a drop in his fastball velocity during the 8th inning as a sign he is being overworked, but that should not be a cause for concern. Timmy's fastball has occasionally dropped into the high 80's ever since he's been called up to the Giants, so a temporary drop in velocity by itself is not enough to cause alarm.

Clearly the Giants' ace has cured whatever ailed him during his first two starts. Of course pitching against the Diamondbacks' lineup can't hurt. Despite having a plethora of young talent, Arizona has not gotten off to a good start offensively. Their team OPS is a meager .674, good for 26th best in the Major Leagues.

Unfortunately for San Francisco the Giants offense has been even more anemic. Their team OPS is the second worst in the league at .667.

On Friday though, they drove in more than enough runs. The offense was highlighted by Bengie Molina's 3 run home run in the top of the 4th. This guy just continues to impress, and he is one of the lone bright spots in the Giants lineup.

I put a poll up to see who you think is the best catcher in the NL West. There are some pretty solid ones in this division, but my vote went for Bengie. Call me a homer if you must!

Giants Beat the Padres, 1-0.

The San Francisco Giants ended their five game home stand with a 4-1 record after beating the San Diego Padres in extra innings Wednesday afternoon, 1-0. The win brought their home record to 6-2 this year.

Barry Zito shut out the Padres through seven innings in one of his best starts as a Giant. Zito gave up no walks and struck out five batters. Barry's performance was the fifth straight quality start by a member of San Francisco's rotation, which seems to be rounding into form.

Unfortunately for him, Zito was not able to earn a win as Chris Young matched the Giants' starter pitch for pitch. San Francisco's lineup was only able to muster two hits in seven innings against Young. In his two starts against the Giants this season, Young has managed to pitch an impressive 14 scoreless innings!

The pitchers duel lasted until the bottom of the 10th when Bengie Molina came in and hit a pinch hit ground ruled double to score Andres Torres and give the Giants the win.

After 14 games the Giants are 3-1 when they score four or more runs. They are 5-0 when leading after seven innings. Clearly this team has good enough starting pitching and a strong enough bullpen to win a lot of games if they can just score an average amount of runs. However, the lineup has averaged a meager 3.29 runs/game so far.

The team begins a three game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday, April 24th at 6:40 PM. Tim Lincecum will be on the mound for the Giants against Dave Davis.