Padres Series Preview

The Giants begin the first series of a six game road trip Tuesday against the San Diego Padres. San Francisco will be looking to avenge the three game sweep they endured during their last visit to San Diego. They will send Barry Zito (1-3, 3.89 ERA) to the mound to face Chris Young (2-2, 5.56 ERA) in the opener.

Zito has been pitching well as of late. In his last five starts he has allowed only eight earned runs in 32.2 innings pitched, and has been averaging 5.79 strikeouts and 2.48 walks per nine innings. His revival has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants so far this season, and I expect he will make a strong showing in front of his hometown crowd in San Diego.

His opponent, Chris Young, has not fared as well. The 6'10" right-hander has had control problems in his last five starts, walking six batters per game. He will need to improve his command to slow down a Giant's lineup that has shown signs of improvement lately.

Pablo Sandoval has led the way for the Giants this month with a team leading .387wOBA. The 22 year old third baseman has increased his power output, hitting two home runs, seven doubles, and slugging .554 in his last 65 at-bats.

Other hot hitters include Emmanuel Burriss, Randy Winn, and Bengie Molina. All three have hit over .300 in the past two weeks. Even centerfielder Aaron Rowand has shown signs of breaking out of his slump. The 31 year old Rowand has a batting line of .333/.448/.990 in his last 24 at-bats.

San Francisco has not been able to figure out Chris Young the first two times these teams faced each other, scoring only one run in each game. Despite Young's recent dominance against the Giants and the added advantage of pitching in PetCo Park's spacious dimensions, it seems likely that the Giants will be able to score at least a couple of runs against him in this game. If Zito's resurgence continues they have a good chance to start this road trip off with a victory.

No Sweep? No Problem.

Sunday the Giants avoided a ball-busting four game sweep on the strength of Matt Cain's 4th victory of the year.

The young right-hander threw six shutout innings, and struck out two while allowing three hits and five walks. Cain littered the diamond with baserunners, as the Mets leadoff hitters managed to reach base four out of the six innings he pitched, but managed to wiggle his way out of tight spots all day.

The Giants starter helped himself with the bat in the fifth inning, by hitting an rbi single. Bengie Molina drove in Pablo Sandoval in the first, for the Giants only other run of the game. Two runs were all they needed though, as Brian Wilson saved the shutout in the ninth, his ninth save of the year. San Francisco improved to 15-0 in games when they score first.

Kevin Frandsen, who was called up from Triple A Fresno and started at shortstop, went 0 for 4 but played well in the field.

Giants Lineup According to The Book

About a week ago I went ahead and bought The Book: Playing the Percentages In Baseball. If you are interested in baseball strategy, sabermetrics, and/or how to improve your criticism of your favorite team's manager, I highly recommend reading this book. It's written by three noted sabermetricians: Tom M. Tango, Mitchel G. Lichtman, and Andrew E. Dolphin. While the writing style can be a bit stale at times, you can tell they've wasted a majority of their adult lives on baseball statistics and it has resulted in some great content for the rest of us.

One of my favorite chapters is the one on optimizing a batting order. They managed to fill thirty pages discussing the batting order in all its gory detail, a feat that is both sick and beautiful at the same time. I will not go into the great detail they do, mostly because you should buy it and read it for yourself, but I've decided to make a lineup for the Giants based on some of the principles laid out in The Book.

Here are the main points that I used to put this lineup together:

We want our three best hitters to bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. The cleanup hitter gets his value in his SLG, the leadoff hitter leads the team in OBP, and the #2 hitter is somewhat more balanced. The #3 and #5 hitters are the same quality, with the #3 hitter having more HR than the #5 hitter (p 144).

Try to put your good baserunners in front of good hitters, especially if those hitters are predominantly singles or doubles hitters (p 140).

The second leadoff hitter theory exists. You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year (p 149).

Now onward with the lineup!

1. Fred Lewis - Lewis is our best OBP guy and draws the most walks. This makes him ideal for the leadoff spot. He is also a good baserunner and potentially a good basestealer.
2. Randy Winn - Winn is not a big power hitter, but he certainly has been one of our top three hitters over the bast few seasons. He will probably finish the season with an OPS in the top 3-4 on the team. He is also a good baserunner.
3. Aaron Rowand - Rowand is one of the better hitters on the team. He is probably the second best slugger behind Molina, which means he should go in the three hole.
4. Bengie Molina - Molina continues to be the biggest offensive threat on the Giants. He is the best slugger and RBI guy, so he should stay in the cleanup spot.
5. Edgar Renteria - Renteria is a professional hitter and should be one of the top offensive performers for the Giants. He will not SLG as much as Rowand though so he bats fifth in this lineup. I could see switching Renteria and Winn.
6. Emmanuel Burris - Burriss has been our top basestealer so far. This is a good spot in the lineup for a basestealer, because Pablo Sandoval is a good hitter but will probably not hit for much power.
7. Pablo Sandoval - Excellent contact hitter. One problem with him in this spot is that he has been hitting a lot of groundballs (52%), which could lead to a lot of double plays. Still I think he is a better hitter than Ishikawa so he gets the nod for the seventh spot.
8. Pitcher - Sucky no matter where they bat (Unless they're batting against Randy Johnson).
9. Travis Ishikawa - So far the worst hitter on the team. He has struggled with major league pitching throughout most of his career.

Keep in mind that the improvement you gain from optimizing your lineup according to sabermetric principles is relatively small. We're talking like 50 runs over the course of the season, which is equal to about five wins. So it's not like our lineup would all of a sudden turn into the Cardinals or the Red Sox lineup. But for a team like the Giants that's fighting to stay at .500, those five wins could prove to be tremendously important.

Lincecum Gets His First Win

It took four starts, but Tim Lincecum finally got his first win of the season on Friday against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants won 5-1 as Lincecum defied the conventional wisdom that pitchers perform worse when they face the same team in consecutive starts, by going eight innings and only allowing one earned run. He struck out 12 batters to bring his total up to 25 in the last two games!

I've read in a couple of different places that some people are worried Bruce Bochy is pushing Lincecum too hard this early in the season. They cite a drop in his fastball velocity during the 8th inning as a sign he is being overworked, but that should not be a cause for concern. Timmy's fastball has occasionally dropped into the high 80's ever since he's been called up to the Giants, so a temporary drop in velocity by itself is not enough to cause alarm.

Clearly the Giants' ace has cured whatever ailed him during his first two starts. Of course pitching against the Diamondbacks' lineup can't hurt. Despite having a plethora of young talent, Arizona has not gotten off to a good start offensively. Their team OPS is a meager .674, good for 26th best in the Major Leagues.

Unfortunately for San Francisco the Giants offense has been even more anemic. Their team OPS is the second worst in the league at .667.

On Friday though, they drove in more than enough runs. The offense was highlighted by Bengie Molina's 3 run home run in the top of the 4th. This guy just continues to impress, and he is one of the lone bright spots in the Giants lineup.

I put a poll up to see who you think is the best catcher in the NL West. There are some pretty solid ones in this division, but my vote went for Bengie. Call me a homer if you must!

Giants Beat the Padres, 1-0.

The San Francisco Giants ended their five game home stand with a 4-1 record after beating the San Diego Padres in extra innings Wednesday afternoon, 1-0. The win brought their home record to 6-2 this year.

Barry Zito shut out the Padres through seven innings in one of his best starts as a Giant. Zito gave up no walks and struck out five batters. Barry's performance was the fifth straight quality start by a member of San Francisco's rotation, which seems to be rounding into form.

Unfortunately for him, Zito was not able to earn a win as Chris Young matched the Giants' starter pitch for pitch. San Francisco's lineup was only able to muster two hits in seven innings against Young. In his two starts against the Giants this season, Young has managed to pitch an impressive 14 scoreless innings!

The pitchers duel lasted until the bottom of the 10th when Bengie Molina came in and hit a pinch hit ground ruled double to score Andres Torres and give the Giants the win.

After 14 games the Giants are 3-1 when they score four or more runs. They are 5-0 when leading after seven innings. Clearly this team has good enough starting pitching and a strong enough bullpen to win a lot of games if they can just score an average amount of runs. However, the lineup has averaged a meager 3.29 runs/game so far.

The team begins a three game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday, April 24th at 6:40 PM. Tim Lincecum will be on the mound for the Giants against Dave Davis.