Can The Giants Catch The Bums?

With about a third of the season in the books the Giants sit in second place, 8.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But is it realistic to expect San Francisco to make a run at LA for the division title?

48 games into the season the Giants have scored just 188 runs. That means after 30% of the season they are on pace to score only 626 runs this year. They are on pace to allow 643 runs. If San Francisco continues their current level of play, we can expect them to finish with a .487 winning percentage and a 79-83 record.

Conversely, the Dodgers are expected to score 901 runs this season, while allowing about 640 runs by the years end. This would give them a pythagorean record of 108-54, a winning percentage of .665.

It kills me to say this but the Dodgers have a realistic shot at winning 100 games this season. The NL West is horrible, their pitching is almost as good as the Giants, and they're loaded up and down the lineup.

The people who are clamoring for San Francisco to trade for a bat and make a run at the playoffs are delusional. Adding a hitter will not make up the 29 game difference between the Giants and the Dodgers expected records. No player can win 29 games for a team by himself.

San Francisco doesn't need a hitter, it needs a whole new lineup. And guess what, we already have that lineup. It's in the minor leagues developing. Guys like Villalona, Posey, and others of their ilk should give us hope for the future. A future that should not be traded away just to make a half-assed run at the wildcard.

For now we should enjoy watching guys like Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval excel at the major league level. Brian Sabean has taken baby steps this year towards the youth movement most Giants fans have been clamoring for. Do you really want him to go out and get a guy like Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, or Russell Branyan? I'm sorry but those players are not the answer to San Francisco's problems.

Can the Giants catch LA and win the NL West? Sure it's possible, but it's highly unlikely. Do yourself a favor and stop looking at the standings and just enjoy the games.

Johnson Wins #299

Randy Johnson went six innings and only gave up one run en route to his 299th career win. The Big Unit had good command; he walked just one batter and struck out five.

The Giants bullpen pitched well and did not allow an earned run. Brian Wilson picked up his tenth save in fourteen opportunities.

San Francisco's lineup was able to overcome some shaky defense to cement the win for Johnson. Juan Uribe put the Giants up for good in the second with an RBI single that scored Fred Lewis. The "ground attack" struck in the third inning when Aaron Rowand scored on a double steal. Rowand and Nate Schierholtz drove in two more runs in the sixth to make the score 4-1.

But Emmanuel Burriss' error in the top of the seventh nearly cost the Giants the game. What looked like a routine groundball skidded under his glove into right field. Instead of having nobody on and one out, the Braves got their leadoff man on base for free.

Two walks later the bases were loaded for Garrett Anderson, who hit a two out single to bring Atlanta back to within one.

Burriss attoned for his sin by driving in a run in the bottom half of the inning. Andres Torres tacked on another RBI to give San Francisco a 6-3 lead, and that's how the game would end.

Tidbits

• Randy Johnson will go for his 300th win in Washington D.C. against the Nationals.
• Aaron Rowand continued his hot streak with two doubles and an RBI. In the week leading up to this game Rowand hit .375 with two home runs.
  
• The Giants fourth and fifth outfielders both had RBIs in this game.
  
• I'm pretty sure I saw Chipper Jones use two different bats depending on which side of the plate he was hitting from. His right handed bat was black and his left handed bat had a natural color. Maybe I was seeing things but I don't think so.
• It feels good to sweep the Atlanta Braves:)
  

Lincecum Looking For A Win

After two rough outings to start the season, Tim Lincecum has posted a 2.76 ERA in his last seven starts. Tonight the Giants ace will be looking to add to his win total after three straight no decisions.

He will face rookie Kris Medlen, who will be starting in only his second game at the big league level. The young right-hander only lasted three innings and gave up five earned runs in his control plagued debut, but believes he has fixed the mechanical problems that led to his wildness.

While this looks like a clear mismatch, Medlen showed a lot of potential during his four year stay in the minor leagues. He owns a 2.46 ERA in 227 innings pitched, and a 1.08 WHIP. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings, while only allowing two walks per game.

Medlen will come at the Giants with a fastball, a curveball, and a change up. He does not have dominating stuff so he will have to locate his pitches if he hopes to upset the reigning National League Cy Young. However, don't be fooled by yesterday's eight run outburst, San Francisco's lineup stinks and given Medlen's strong minor league track record it is very possible that he will keep Atlanta in the game.

Giants Pitching Report

Before the start of the season many believed that the Giants would have one of the best staffs in the National League. 43 games into the season is that really the case?

Here's how the Giants compare to the rest of the National League in some important pitching metrics (click on the links to see a definition of the metric):

• 4.14 FIP (5th)
• 7.87 K/9 (3rd)
• 4.09 BB/9 (14th)
• 1.42 WHIP (11th)

A 4.14 FIP is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering that's more than a run better than the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies FIP of 5.34.

But San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the National League in WHIP, well off the 1.29 pace set by the league leading Dodgers. ::yuck:: This means that the Giants have had a lot of extra base runners and have had to pitch out of some tight spots to avoid giving up runs.

The G-men are in fact leading the league by stranding 75% of the base runners they allow. This ability to strand runners stems from their high strikeout rate (7.87 K/9).

Part of the problem with having a lot of strikeout pitchers on the staff is that they tend to walk a lot of batters, and that is exactly what has happened this year. San Francisco's 4.09 BB/9 is not very good at all and it is certainly not an improvement on last year's 4.07 mark.

So how are the Giants able to get by while allowing so many base runners? Are they just lucky? Not really, their staff is actually set up to function this way. The majority of the pitchers on this staff are fly ball/strikeout pitchers, as evidenced by San Francisco's league leading 39.2% fly ball rate.

I expect the Giants to continue walking people and allowing extra base runners, but they should still finish near the top of the league in runs allowed and that's all that really matters right?

Giants Lose Another Series

The score was different but the results were the same, San Francisco lost a one run game for the fifth time in the last six games. Barry Zito and the Giants fell victim to the long ball in their 5-4 defeat at the hands of the Seattle Mariners.

Ken Griffey Jr. got things started for the Mariners in the bottom of the first, when he hit the 616 home run of his illustrious career to put the M's up 2-0.

That's the way things stayed until the Giants took the lead with a three run rally with two outs in the fifth. Eli Whiteside, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria all had rbi singles to put the Giants up 3-2.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, Zito was not able to keep the lead for long. When Seattle came up to bat in the bottom of the inning, he walked the lead off batter and gave up a single to Ichiro Suzuki. Yuniesky Bettancourt moved the runners up with a sacrifice, and Adrian Beltre came to bat with runners on first and second and only one out. Beltre responded with a three run blast that put Seattle up for good.

Zito finished the game with 6.1 innings pitched, 5 earned runs, 5 walks, and 5 strikeouts. A rather pedestrian effort given his recent success, but still not horrible. He struggled with his command all game, often missing high and away to right handed batters. Missing up in the zone is never a good thing and Barry paid the price in the form of two home runs and tally in the loss column.

Fred Lewis made the game close in the top of the eighth when he hit his second home run in as many days. Mississippi Fred could provide a big boost to the Giants floundering offense if he can continue his power streak.

San Francisco begins a three game series against the Atlanta Braves on Monday afternoon.

Win A Series Anyone?

I saved myself the pain of watching last night's game, only to find out that the Giants actually ::gasp:: won a baseball game! Matt Cain pitched a complete game and got his fifth win of the year as the Giants beat Seattle 5-1. Here are some quick notes on Saturday's game before we partake in this afternoon's offering.

• Matt Cain is a beautiful man. He gave up no walks and struck out seven.
• Utility infielder Juan Uribe broke the game open with a three run double.
• Fred Lewis added some insurance when he hit a two run shot, his second home run of the year.
  
• Jesus Guzman collected his first major league hit. It was originally scored a fielder's choice, but the ruling was eventually changed.

The Giants also have some action on the injury and transaction front.

• Pablo Sandoval injured his elbow on a throw to first base in Friday's game. It is speculated that he hyperextended his throwing elbow and will have to miss a few games. Sandoval will undergo tests to determine the severity of the injury, hopefully it does not turn out to be something more serious.
• Eli Whiteside has been called up from Triple-A Fresno. Noah Lowry was put on the 60-day DL list to clear a spot for Whiteside on the 40-man roster. Left-handed reliever Pat Misch was sent back down to Fresno to make room on the active roster.
• Brian Sabean has gone on record saying that he is actively shopping for another bat. Possible options include Indians infielder Mark DeRosa and Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson.
• Emmanuel Burriss and Travis Ishikawa will be sharing playing time with Kevin Frandsen and Jesus Guzman. The Giants are hoping the increased competition will improve their offensive output, and help Burriss and Ishikawa regain their spring training form.
  

Jesus Guzman A Giant

The big news leading up to tonight's game three against the Padres is the Giants have purchased the contract of infielder Jesus Guzman from Triple-A Fresno. Many people who follow the organization have been screaming and crawling on all fours waiting for this move to finally take place. Now everyone will have a chance to see exactly what Guzman has to offer on the Major League level.

Jesus is expected to bring some added power to a lineup that is next to last in runs scored (152). He put together a batting line of .363/.391/.983 in 157 at-bats with the Fresno Grizzlies. In 39 games, Guzman hit six home runs and had 32 runs batted in.

Even more impressive is his .419 average with runners in scoring position. The Giants as a team have hit .220 with runners in scoring position this year. If Guzman's run production carries over to the big leagues, he will quickly become a valuable asset to this team. Hell if he can hit a couple sacrifice flies he'll be a fan favorite.

Jesus will be available to pinch hit tonight against the Padres, and he is expected to DH for the Giants in their upcoming series against the Seattle Mariners.

Backup catcher Steve Holm has been sent back down to Fresno to clear room on the active roster for Guzman. Joe Martinez has been placed on the 60-day DL to make room for him on the 40-man roster.

Two Games; Two Runs

Baseball teams have been scoring runs since the 19th century, but apparently such an antiquated vestige of baseball's history is of no interest to these Giants. Two games into a three game set with the San Diego Padres, and San Francisco has only managed to score two runs. Newsflash, you will not win many games scoring only one run, and after tonight's 2-1 loss they haven't won any in this series.

On with the bullet points:

• Uh what was Aaron Rowand doing in the leadoff spot? Definitely didn't see that one coming, but the permaslumping center fielder showed some signs of life going 3-4 with a double. It will be interesting to see if this was a one time thing, or if manager Bruce Bochy will put Rowand in the top spot for tomorrow's game.
• Jonathan Sanchez remembered how to pitch tonight. Coming into Thursday's game, the Giants fifth starter had been pitching like just, a fifth starter. But Sanchez pitched six innings, and only allowed two hits and two earned runs. He was hit with the loss despite his strong start. We'll see if this is a sign of things to come, or if Sanchez will continue to be plagued by the inconsistency that has held him back all year.
• Randy Winn continued his hot streak. The right fielder has hit for a .353 average over the past two weeks. Tonight he went 2-4 with two doubles, and scored San Francisco's only run in this game.

Another three game sweep at PetCo Park would be enough to make me nauseous. Please don't make me puke Timmy.

Scott Hairston Tests Positive for PED's

The post title is just a fantasy. In a perfect world, that's the headline I would wake up to tomorrow morning. How else can you explain Scott Hairston's penchant for success against the Giants? Coming into Tuesday's game he had 8 hits in 15 at-bats against San Francisco. Tonight he went 2 for 2 with a home run and two bases on balls. Here are some thoughts about the Giants 2-1 loss to the Padres:

• Scott Hairston should be traded to an American League team.
• Barry Zito has been surprisingly effective this season. I keep waiting for him to implode and give up 6 runs in 4 innings pitched, but it just hasn't happened yet. It's getting to the point now where I can almost sleep the nights before he starts, almost. Zito went eight innings and only allowed two earned runs on five hits.
• Prior to tonight's game Barry Zito had recieved the worst run support in the National League. After the game, he still has the dubious honor of topping that list.
  
• The team's youngsters were flashing the leather all over the field tonight. Emmanuel Burriss and Fred Lewis both had spectacular defensive plays, and Kevin Frandsen looked like a shortstop. I think he should lose the eye black though, it's way too nineties at this point.
• I'm pretty sure I've been to Little League games that drew better than the Padres. Seriously, where are there fans? Fleeing from the swine flu?
• As soon as I saw Eugenio Velez step into the batters box with two out in the ninth, I just knew the game was over. Unfortunately, I was right.

Tomorrow the Giants will send Jonathan Sanchez against right-hander Chad Gaudin. Hopefully Eugenio is on a bus to Fresno by that time.

Padres Series Preview

The Giants begin the first series of a six game road trip Tuesday against the San Diego Padres. San Francisco will be looking to avenge the three game sweep they endured during their last visit to San Diego. They will send Barry Zito (1-3, 3.89 ERA) to the mound to face Chris Young (2-2, 5.56 ERA) in the opener.

Zito has been pitching well as of late. In his last five starts he has allowed only eight earned runs in 32.2 innings pitched, and has been averaging 5.79 strikeouts and 2.48 walks per nine innings. His revival has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants so far this season, and I expect he will make a strong showing in front of his hometown crowd in San Diego.

His opponent, Chris Young, has not fared as well. The 6'10" right-hander has had control problems in his last five starts, walking six batters per game. He will need to improve his command to slow down a Giant's lineup that has shown signs of improvement lately.

Pablo Sandoval has led the way for the Giants this month with a team leading .387wOBA. The 22 year old third baseman has increased his power output, hitting two home runs, seven doubles, and slugging .554 in his last 65 at-bats.

Other hot hitters include Emmanuel Burriss, Randy Winn, and Bengie Molina. All three have hit over .300 in the past two weeks. Even centerfielder Aaron Rowand has shown signs of breaking out of his slump. The 31 year old Rowand has a batting line of .333/.448/.990 in his last 24 at-bats.

San Francisco has not been able to figure out Chris Young the first two times these teams faced each other, scoring only one run in each game. Despite Young's recent dominance against the Giants and the added advantage of pitching in PetCo Park's spacious dimensions, it seems likely that the Giants will be able to score at least a couple of runs against him in this game. If Zito's resurgence continues they have a good chance to start this road trip off with a victory.

No Sweep? No Problem.

Sunday the Giants avoided a ball-busting four game sweep on the strength of Matt Cain's 4th victory of the year.

The young right-hander threw six shutout innings, and struck out two while allowing three hits and five walks. Cain littered the diamond with baserunners, as the Mets leadoff hitters managed to reach base four out of the six innings he pitched, but managed to wiggle his way out of tight spots all day.

The Giants starter helped himself with the bat in the fifth inning, by hitting an rbi single. Bengie Molina drove in Pablo Sandoval in the first, for the Giants only other run of the game. Two runs were all they needed though, as Brian Wilson saved the shutout in the ninth, his ninth save of the year. San Francisco improved to 15-0 in games when they score first.

Kevin Frandsen, who was called up from Triple A Fresno and started at shortstop, went 0 for 4 but played well in the field.

Giants Close But Not Quiet Good Enough

Today the San Francisco Giants fell victim to the New York Mets' impressive offensive depth, in a 9-6 loss.

Randy Johnson's unsuccessful bid for victory number 299 got off to a rather ignominious start in the top of the first, with back to back singles followed by stolen bases (Numbers 12 and 13 on the series). This put runners on second and third for Carlos Beltran, who cleared the bases with a double. Clean up hitter Gary Sheffield singled in Beltran to put the Mets up 3-0.

The Big Unit seemed to settle down after his rocky first inning, and the Giants lineup responded. Pablo Sandoval brought the Giants to within two with an RBI double in the third and Aaron Rowand hit a two run single in the fourth to tie the game 3-3.

Unfortunately Johnson completely unraveled in the top of the fifth. The apparently aging lefty gave up three doubles, a single, and a balk before being removed from the game. He would eventually be charged with seven earned runs, bringing his ERA in his last three starts to 11.05. After Saturday's performance, is overall ERA is a dismal 6.86.

Johnson has been inconsistent at best and downright miserable at worst so far this season. While it's not clear what exactly is ailing the future hall of famer, he believes he needs to improve on his pitch location. Randy gave credit to the Mets lineup saying, "It's the best lineup that I've seen so far this year."

Despite the Big Unit's poor start, the Giants were able to come back and make a game of it. Aaron Rowand hit his third home run of the year in the sixth, a solo shot to left field off of Mets starter Johan Santana. Rich Aurillia and Randy Winn also had RBI's to get the Giants back to within one before New York iced the game with two more runs in the ninth.

So far this season the strength of the Giants roster has been their pitching staff, but they have stumbled in the last two series against Washington and New York, two of the premier offenses in the National League. San Francisco has given up a combined 44 runs in the last six games, and they will need to reverse that trend to avoid a sweep.

Zito Returns to Cy Young Form

Barry Zito will take the hill today against the Washington Nationals. The nationals have a fearsome lineup which includes third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman who is in the midst of a 30 game hit streak. As a team their wOBA is .351. That is good for fifth best in the majors, behind only the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Yankees.

For most of the past two seasons, this is a start you would expect Barry Zito to lose. But the former Cy Young award winner has shown signs of regaining his old form so far this season. He has increased his strikeout rate and decreased his walk rate, bringing his K/BB ratio to a healthy 2. His WHIP has dropped from last year's career high of 1.60 to a respectable 1.25.

What has led to this improvement? Zito's velocity has increased this season from an average of 84.9 MPG to 86.6 MPH. This improved velocity means that there is now a 12 MPH difference between his fastball and his change-up, a 2 MPH improvement over last seasons' split. It is possible that his increase in velocity has allowed Zito to keep hitters more off-balance this year.

Many people have also pointed to a change in Zito's attitude on the mound. They cite this newfound confidence as the reason for his improvement. If you watch Barry pitch, it is evident that he is way more into the game than in years past. I'm not really sure what caused this shift in demeanor or how much of a difference it really makes but, I won't argue with the results.

75 has been especially dominant of late, posting a 1.37 ERA in his last four starts. If the Giants are going to sweep the Nationals they will need a strong start from Zito. I refuse to believe that the Giants will be able to score more than 4 runs three games in a row.