Can The Giants Catch The Bums?

With about a third of the season in the books the Giants sit in second place, 8.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But is it realistic to expect San Francisco to make a run at LA for the division title?

48 games into the season the Giants have scored just 188 runs. That means after 30% of the season they are on pace to score only 626 runs this year. They are on pace to allow 643 runs. If San Francisco continues their current level of play, we can expect them to finish with a .487 winning percentage and a 79-83 record.

Conversely, the Dodgers are expected to score 901 runs this season, while allowing about 640 runs by the years end. This would give them a pythagorean record of 108-54, a winning percentage of .665.

It kills me to say this but the Dodgers have a realistic shot at winning 100 games this season. The NL West is horrible, their pitching is almost as good as the Giants, and they're loaded up and down the lineup.

The people who are clamoring for San Francisco to trade for a bat and make a run at the playoffs are delusional. Adding a hitter will not make up the 29 game difference between the Giants and the Dodgers expected records. No player can win 29 games for a team by himself.

San Francisco doesn't need a hitter, it needs a whole new lineup. And guess what, we already have that lineup. It's in the minor leagues developing. Guys like Villalona, Posey, and others of their ilk should give us hope for the future. A future that should not be traded away just to make a half-assed run at the wildcard.

For now we should enjoy watching guys like Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval excel at the major league level. Brian Sabean has taken baby steps this year towards the youth movement most Giants fans have been clamoring for. Do you really want him to go out and get a guy like Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, or Russell Branyan? I'm sorry but those players are not the answer to San Francisco's problems.

Can the Giants catch LA and win the NL West? Sure it's possible, but it's highly unlikely. Do yourself a favor and stop looking at the standings and just enjoy the games.

San Jose Giants Top Performers

Since the Giants have an off day on Thursday, I decided to take a look at how some of their top young prospects are doing with the class-A San Jose Giants. I came up with a list of four top performers.

Keep in mind that we are dealing with a small sample size here, so these statistics alone are not a true representation of the player's talent. However, all logic and reason aside the San Jose fans have seen some truly remarkable performances thus far and it bodes well for the future of the big league club. Onward with the list!

1. C Buster Posey - Not much of a surprise here. Last years fifth overall pick has looked impressive in 50 at bats with the San Jose Giants. So far he has displayed above average power, hitting three home runs and four doubles while driving in twelve runs and leading the team with 20 hits. He has shown a good command of the strike zone, as evidenced by his ten walks. Strike outs have not been a problem, Buster only has nine after 13 games. Posey's slash line is .4oo/.500/.660. That's an OPS of 1.160, very impressive indeed! The young Giant was named the CAL Player of the Week for 4/20/09.

2. 1B Angel Villalona - The 18 year old Villalona finished the season strong last year. He batted .308 while hitting five home runs and driving in twenty during the month of August for the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes. He has turned that good finish into a good start for the San Jose Giants. His rate statistics are solid, .375/.404/.583. In 48 at bats he has hit three home runs and driven in ten runs. He could improve on his walk rate, Angel has just three walks compared to seven strikeouts.

3. SS Brandon Crawford - Although less heralded than Buster Posey and Angel Villalona, Brandon Crawford has gotten off to a hot start with the San Jose Giants. He is leading the team with four home runs and 35 total bases (Buster Posey is second in total bases with 33). Crawford's slash line looks like this, .373/.467/.686. After 51 at bats he is second on the team with a mind blowing 1.153 OPS! One area of relative weakness has been Brandon's strikeouts. So far he has struck out 17 times and has only drawn six walks.

4. SP Madison Bumgarner - The Giant's prized lefty has certainly lived up to the hype in San Jose. In three starts he has been downright filthy. Opposing lineups have combined for just 11 hits against Bumgarner, who is off to a 3-0 start. He has allowed only one earned run in 16 innings pitched, that's a 0.56 ERA! Bumgarner's K/BB ratio is even better. After 16 innings Madison has 14 strikeouts and has only given up two bases on balls, for an unheard of K/BB ratio of 7/1. All of this leads one to believe that San Francisco's young prodigy has not had many runners on base, and his microscopic 0.81 WHIP confirms it.

Other players off to good starts with San Jose include Nick Noonan and Tim Alderson.

On May 9th I will be going to see the San Jose Giants play the Modesto Nuts in Modesto. Hopefully most of the top prospects will still be with the San Jose club and I will be able to give some first hand impressions.