1948
5 weeks ago
Monday, December 7, 2009
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Can The Giants Catch The Bums?
With about a third of the season in the books the Giants sit in second place, 8.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But is it realistic to expect San Francisco to make a run at LA for the division title?
48 games into the season the Giants have scored just 188 runs. That means after 30% of the season they are on pace to score only 626 runs this year. They are on pace to allow 643 runs. If San Francisco continues their current level of play, we can expect them to finish with a .487 winning percentage and a 79-83 record.
Conversely, the Dodgers are expected to score 901 runs this season, while allowing about 640 runs by the years end. This would give them a pythagorean record of 108-54, a winning percentage of .665.
It kills me to say this but the Dodgers have a realistic shot at winning 100 games this season. The NL West is horrible, their pitching is almost as good as the Giants, and they're loaded up and down the lineup.
The people who are clamoring for San Francisco to trade for a bat and make a run at the playoffs are delusional. Adding a hitter will not make up the 29 game difference between the Giants and the Dodgers expected records. No player can win 29 games for a team by himself.
San Francisco doesn't need a hitter, it needs a whole new lineup. And guess what, we already have that lineup. It's in the minor leagues developing. Guys like Villalona, Posey, and others of their ilk should give us hope for the future. A future that should not be traded away just to make a half-assed run at the wildcard.
For now we should enjoy watching guys like Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval excel at the major league level. Brian Sabean has taken baby steps this year towards the youth movement most Giants fans have been clamoring for. Do you really want him to go out and get a guy like Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, or Russell Branyan? I'm sorry but those players are not the answer to San Francisco's problems.
Can the Giants catch LA and win the NL West? Sure it's possible, but it's highly unlikely. Do yourself a favor and stop looking at the standings and just enjoy the games.
48 games into the season the Giants have scored just 188 runs. That means after 30% of the season they are on pace to score only 626 runs this year. They are on pace to allow 643 runs. If San Francisco continues their current level of play, we can expect them to finish with a .487 winning percentage and a 79-83 record.
Conversely, the Dodgers are expected to score 901 runs this season, while allowing about 640 runs by the years end. This would give them a pythagorean record of 108-54, a winning percentage of .665.
It kills me to say this but the Dodgers have a realistic shot at winning 100 games this season. The NL West is horrible, their pitching is almost as good as the Giants, and they're loaded up and down the lineup.
The people who are clamoring for San Francisco to trade for a bat and make a run at the playoffs are delusional. Adding a hitter will not make up the 29 game difference between the Giants and the Dodgers expected records. No player can win 29 games for a team by himself.
San Francisco doesn't need a hitter, it needs a whole new lineup. And guess what, we already have that lineup. It's in the minor leagues developing. Guys like Villalona, Posey, and others of their ilk should give us hope for the future. A future that should not be traded away just to make a half-assed run at the wildcard.
For now we should enjoy watching guys like Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval excel at the major league level. Brian Sabean has taken baby steps this year towards the youth movement most Giants fans have been clamoring for. Do you really want him to go out and get a guy like Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, or Russell Branyan? I'm sorry but those players are not the answer to San Francisco's problems.
Can the Giants catch LA and win the NL West? Sure it's possible, but it's highly unlikely. Do yourself a favor and stop looking at the standings and just enjoy the games.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Johnson Wins #299
Randy Johnson went six innings and only gave up one run en route to his 299th career win. The Big Unit had good command; he walked just one batter and struck out five.
The Giants bullpen pitched well and did not allow an earned run. Brian Wilson picked up his tenth save in fourteen opportunities.
San Francisco's lineup was able to overcome some shaky defense to cement the win for Johnson. Juan Uribe put the Giants up for good in the second with an RBI single that scored Fred Lewis. The "ground attack" struck in the third inning when Aaron Rowand scored on a double steal. Rowand and Nate Schierholtz drove in two more runs in the sixth to make the score 4-1.
But Emmanuel Burriss' error in the top of the seventh nearly cost the Giants the game. What looked like a routine groundball skidded under his glove into right field. Instead of having nobody on and one out, the Braves got their leadoff man on base for free.
Two walks later the bases were loaded for Garrett Anderson, who hit a two out single to bring Atlanta back to within one.
Burriss attoned for his sin by driving in a run in the bottom half of the inning. Andres Torres tacked on another RBI to give San Francisco a 6-3 lead, and that's how the game would end.
Tidbits
The Giants bullpen pitched well and did not allow an earned run. Brian Wilson picked up his tenth save in fourteen opportunities.
San Francisco's lineup was able to overcome some shaky defense to cement the win for Johnson. Juan Uribe put the Giants up for good in the second with an RBI single that scored Fred Lewis. The "ground attack" struck in the third inning when Aaron Rowand scored on a double steal. Rowand and Nate Schierholtz drove in two more runs in the sixth to make the score 4-1.
But Emmanuel Burriss' error in the top of the seventh nearly cost the Giants the game. What looked like a routine groundball skidded under his glove into right field. Instead of having nobody on and one out, the Braves got their leadoff man on base for free.
Two walks later the bases were loaded for Garrett Anderson, who hit a two out single to bring Atlanta back to within one.
Burriss attoned for his sin by driving in a run in the bottom half of the inning. Andres Torres tacked on another RBI to give San Francisco a 6-3 lead, and that's how the game would end.
Tidbits
- Randy Johnson will go for his 300th win in Washington D.C. against the Nationals.
- Aaron Rowand continued his hot streak with two doubles and an RBI. In the week leading up to this game Rowand hit .375 with two home runs.
- The Giants fourth and fifth outfielders both had RBIs in this game.
- I'm pretty sure I saw Chipper Jones use two different bats depending on which side of the plate he was hitting from. His right handed bat was black and his left handed bat had a natural color. Maybe I was seeing things but I don't think so.
- It feels good to sweep the Atlanta Braves:)
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Lincecum Looking For A Win
After two rough outings to start the season, Tim Lincecum has posted a 2.76 ERA in his last seven starts. Tonight the Giants ace will be looking to add to his win total after three straight no decisions.
He will face rookie Kris Medlen, who will be starting in only his second game at the big league level. The young right-hander only lasted three innings and gave up five earned runs in his control plagued debut, but believes he has fixed the mechanical problems that led to his wildness.
While this looks like a clear mismatch, Medlen showed a lot of potential during his four year stay in the minor leagues. He owns a 2.46 ERA in 227 innings pitched, and a 1.08 WHIP. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings, while only allowing two walks per game.
Medlen will come at the Giants with a fastball, a curveball, and a change up. He does not have dominating stuff so he will have to locate his pitches if he hopes to upset the reigning National League Cy Young. However, don't be fooled by yesterday's eight run outburst, San Francisco's lineup stinks and given Medlen's strong minor league track record it is very possible that he will keep Atlanta in the game.
He will face rookie Kris Medlen, who will be starting in only his second game at the big league level. The young right-hander only lasted three innings and gave up five earned runs in his control plagued debut, but believes he has fixed the mechanical problems that led to his wildness.
While this looks like a clear mismatch, Medlen showed a lot of potential during his four year stay in the minor leagues. He owns a 2.46 ERA in 227 innings pitched, and a 1.08 WHIP. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings, while only allowing two walks per game.
Medlen will come at the Giants with a fastball, a curveball, and a change up. He does not have dominating stuff so he will have to locate his pitches if he hopes to upset the reigning National League Cy Young. However, don't be fooled by yesterday's eight run outburst, San Francisco's lineup stinks and given Medlen's strong minor league track record it is very possible that he will keep Atlanta in the game.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Giants Pitching Report
Before the start of the season many believed that the Giants would have one of the best staffs in the National League. 43 games into the season is that really the case?
Here's how the Giants compare to the rest of the National League in some important pitching metrics (click on the links to see a definition of the metric):
A 4.14 FIP is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering that's more than a run better than the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies FIP of 5.34.
But San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the National League in WHIP, well off the 1.29 pace set by the league leading Dodgers. ::yuck:: This means that the Giants have had a lot of extra base runners and have had to pitch out of some tight spots to avoid giving up runs.
The G-men are in fact leading the league by stranding 75% of the base runners they allow. This ability to strand runners stems from their high strikeout rate (7.87 K/9).
Part of the problem with having a lot of strikeout pitchers on the staff is that they tend to walk a lot of batters, and that is exactly what has happened this year. San Francisco's 4.09 BB/9 is not very good at all and it is certainly not an improvement on last year's 4.07 mark.
So how are the Giants able to get by while allowing so many base runners? Are they just lucky? Not really, their staff is actually set up to function this way. The majority of the pitchers on this staff are fly ball/strikeout pitchers, as evidenced by San Francisco's league leading 39.2% fly ball rate.
I expect the Giants to continue walking people and allowing extra base runners, but they should still finish near the top of the league in runs allowed and that's all that really matters right?
Here's how the Giants compare to the rest of the National League in some important pitching metrics (click on the links to see a definition of the metric):
A 4.14 FIP is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering that's more than a run better than the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies FIP of 5.34.
But San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the National League in WHIP, well off the 1.29 pace set by the league leading Dodgers. ::yuck:: This means that the Giants have had a lot of extra base runners and have had to pitch out of some tight spots to avoid giving up runs.
The G-men are in fact leading the league by stranding 75% of the base runners they allow. This ability to strand runners stems from their high strikeout rate (7.87 K/9).
Part of the problem with having a lot of strikeout pitchers on the staff is that they tend to walk a lot of batters, and that is exactly what has happened this year. San Francisco's 4.09 BB/9 is not very good at all and it is certainly not an improvement on last year's 4.07 mark.
So how are the Giants able to get by while allowing so many base runners? Are they just lucky? Not really, their staff is actually set up to function this way. The majority of the pitchers on this staff are fly ball/strikeout pitchers, as evidenced by San Francisco's league leading 39.2% fly ball rate.
I expect the Giants to continue walking people and allowing extra base runners, but they should still finish near the top of the league in runs allowed and that's all that really matters right?
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Giants Lose Another Series
The score was different but the results were the same, San Francisco lost a one run game for the fifth time in the last six games. Barry Zito and the Giants fell victim to the long ball in their 5-4 defeat at the hands of the Seattle Mariners.
Ken Griffey Jr. got things started for the Mariners in the bottom of the first, when he hit the 616 home run of his illustrious career to put the M's up 2-0.
That's the way things stayed until the Giants took the lead with a three run rally with two outs in the fifth. Eli Whiteside, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria all had rbi singles to put the Giants up 3-2.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, Zito was not able to keep the lead for long. When Seattle came up to bat in the bottom of the inning, he walked the lead off batter and gave up a single to Ichiro Suzuki. Yuniesky Bettancourt moved the runners up with a sacrifice, and Adrian Beltre came to bat with runners on first and second and only one out. Beltre responded with a three run blast that put Seattle up for good.
Zito finished the game with 6.1 innings pitched, 5 earned runs, 5 walks, and 5 strikeouts. A rather pedestrian effort given his recent success, but still not horrible. He struggled with his command all game, often missing high and away to right handed batters. Missing up in the zone is never a good thing and Barry paid the price in the form of two home runs and tally in the loss column.
Fred Lewis made the game close in the top of the eighth when he hit his second home run in as many days. Mississippi Fred could provide a big boost to the Giants floundering offense if he can continue his power streak.
San Francisco begins a three game series against the Atlanta Braves on Monday afternoon.
Ken Griffey Jr. got things started for the Mariners in the bottom of the first, when he hit the 616 home run of his illustrious career to put the M's up 2-0.
That's the way things stayed until the Giants took the lead with a three run rally with two outs in the fifth. Eli Whiteside, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria all had rbi singles to put the Giants up 3-2.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, Zito was not able to keep the lead for long. When Seattle came up to bat in the bottom of the inning, he walked the lead off batter and gave up a single to Ichiro Suzuki. Yuniesky Bettancourt moved the runners up with a sacrifice, and Adrian Beltre came to bat with runners on first and second and only one out. Beltre responded with a three run blast that put Seattle up for good.
Zito finished the game with 6.1 innings pitched, 5 earned runs, 5 walks, and 5 strikeouts. A rather pedestrian effort given his recent success, but still not horrible. He struggled with his command all game, often missing high and away to right handed batters. Missing up in the zone is never a good thing and Barry paid the price in the form of two home runs and tally in the loss column.
Fred Lewis made the game close in the top of the eighth when he hit his second home run in as many days. Mississippi Fred could provide a big boost to the Giants floundering offense if he can continue his power streak.
San Francisco begins a three game series against the Atlanta Braves on Monday afternoon.
Win A Series Anyone?
I saved myself the pain of watching last night's game, only to find out that the Giants actually ::gasp:: won a baseball game! Matt Cain pitched a complete game and got his fifth win of the year as the Giants beat Seattle 5-1. Here are some quick notes on Saturday's game before we partake in this afternoon's offering.
- Matt Cain is a beautiful man. He gave up no walks and struck out seven.
- Utility infielder Juan Uribe broke the game open with a three run double.
- Fred Lewis added some insurance when he hit a two run shot, his second home run of the year.
- Jesus Guzman collected his first major league hit. It was originally scored a fielder's choice, but the ruling was eventually changed.
- Pablo Sandoval injured his elbow on a throw to first base in Friday's game. It is speculated that he hyperextended his throwing elbow and will have to miss a few games. Sandoval will undergo tests to determine the severity of the injury, hopefully it does not turn out to be something more serious.
- Eli Whiteside has been called up from Triple-A Fresno. Noah Lowry was put on the 60-day DL list to clear a spot for Whiteside on the 40-man roster. Left-handed reliever Pat Misch was sent back down to Fresno to make room on the active roster.
- Brian Sabean has gone on record saying that he is actively shopping for another bat. Possible options include Indians infielder Mark DeRosa and Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson.
- Emmanuel Burriss and Travis Ishikawa will be sharing playing time with Kevin Frandsen and Jesus Guzman. The Giants are hoping the increased competition will improve their offensive output, and help Burriss and Ishikawa regain their spring training form.
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