5-3 Loss to That One Team

This was an ugly game to watch as a Giants fan. So many missed opportunities for the orange and black. And while bad defense and baserunning errors may have cost San Francisco this game, Bruce Bochy sure didn't help.

In the bottom of the 7th the Giants were down by one, 2-3. Nate Shierholtz led off the inning with a pinch hit. Fred Lewis came up to bat next with a runner on first and nobody out. At this point the Giants had a win expectancy of 44.5%.

Lewis managed to work the count to 3-2, at which point the manager had a decision to make. Should he put Shierholtz in motion or have him stay put and let Lewis swing away? Unfortunately for San Francisco fans, Bochy decided to start the runner and the bums ended up with a double play. The Giants were left with nobody on and two outs, and a win expectancy of just 28.4%. That one play made them 16.1% less likely to win the game.

The guys on T.V. hinted that the play might turn out poorly before it happened, and indeed it did. Sending the runner in this situation was a bad idea for a couple of reasons. First, Lewis has been striking out a lot. His strikeout rate is 39% so far this season, and he has now struck out six times in the last two games.

This problem was exacerbated by the fact that according to The Book, putting a runner in motion lowers the wOBA of the batter by 22 points on average. This made it even more likely that Lewis would in fact strikeout.Which is what ended up happening, and Shierholtz was subsequently thrown out at 2nd base.

While the Giants did end up tying the game in the 8th, this play was an example of bad strategy on the part of Bruce Bochy.